The US dollar is exhibiting a stronger inclination today. The Dollar Index is poised to potentially end its seven-day downward trend. President Trump has suggested that the “war is close to over”. Recent days have shown an improved risk appetite, indicating that the market is anticipating this development. A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran may commence as soon as tomorrow. The PBOC has established the dollar’s reference rate at a new three-year low today, appearing unaffected by the US blockade that restricts Iranian oil shipments primarily destined for China. On the same day that the Senate Banking Committee announced a confirmation hearing for Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh scheduled for April 21, just 25 days before Powell’s term concludes, US prosecutors conducted an unannounced visit to the Federal Reserve’s offices in Washington. The absence of clearance protocols for accessing the construction site was evident. US Senator Tillis has reiterated his intention to obstruct the confirmation process until the investigation reaches a conclusion.

The euro has achieved its highest value since the onset of the Middle East conflict. The price edged just above $1.1810 as the European session concluded yesterday. The euro spent the North American afternoon in a phase of consolidation, establishing support just above $1.1785. The euro is experiencing subdued trading with a tendency towards a heavier bias. The price has reached $1.1770 in Europe. It appears to be positioned between two significant option strikes: 2 billion euros at $1.1750 and 1.6 billion euros at $1.18, with both positions set to expire today. The dollar has experienced two consecutive declines since reaching its peak against the yen in late March, where it stood near JPY160.45. The peak was observed last week, slightly exceeding JPY160, while this week’s high reached approximately JPY159.85. Yesterday’s retreat saw the greenback settle at JPY158.60, and during the consolidation in the North American afternoon, it was unable to regain the JPY159 level. It scarcely traded above that level today and maintained its position above JPY158.65. Nonetheless, a short-term low could be established, allowing the US dollar to potentially revisit the JPY159.20-40 range. Approximately $1.5 billion in options at JPY158.85 are set to expire today.

Sterling achieved a value of $1.3590 yesterday, marking its highest point since February 17. It paused just a few hundredths of a cent shy of the (61.8%) technical retracement target of the declines observed since the peak was reached in late January (~$1.3870). It closed above the upper Bollinger Band, which is located around $1.3585 today. Sterling is exhibiting a modestly bearish inclination within a tight range of approximately $1.3545 to $1.3580. Support could be found in the range of $1.3480 to $1.3500. The Canadian dollar achieved a three-week peak yesterday, driven by a risk-on sentiment following reports that US-Iran negotiations could resume later this week. The US dollar experienced selling pressure around the CAD1.3750 level, which represents the midpoint of the greenback’s ascent from the March 9 low of approximately CAD1.3525. The US dollar reached its lowest point during early North American trading and subsequently rebounded to approximately CAD1.3775. It is currently trading within the range of approximately CAD1.3660 to CAD1.3780. Initial resistance is in the CAD1.3800-25 range.

The Australian dollar positioned itself slightly under $0.7120 prior to the onset of the conflict and approached nearly $0.7150 yesterday, touching the upper Bollinger Band, which is located around $0.7165 today. It is positioned strongly within the upper boundary of yesterday’s range. The price has remained within the range of $0.7115 to $0.7150 today, without dipping below or exceeding these levels. The Australian dollar reached a peak of approximately $0.7190 last month, marking its strongest position since June 2022, following the central bank’s second interest rate increase of the year. Central bank officials have intentionally maintained the option for a hike at the conclusion of their upcoming meeting (May 4-5).