Two significant developments have emerged this week, both of which are clearly observable today. The first is the ongoing decline in oil prices. August WTI has declined nearly 9% this week, following a similar drop last week and a 5.25% decrease the week prior. It is currently around $69, in contrast to just under $66 prior to the onset of the war. September Brent has decreased by slightly more than 9% this week, following a 7% decline the week prior and a 5.2% drop the week before that. It is slightly below $73, in contrast to just over $70 prior to the conflict. The second is the decline in technology shares. As anticipated, this is most apparent in the major exchanges in Asia and the Nasdaq in the United States. The US dollar is generally weaker today, although the drop in oil prices has negatively impacted the Norwegian krone. It is down approximately 0.3% today and has experienced a decline of nearly 2% this week. The Dollar Index is down approximately 0.25% as we approach the North American session, and if this trend continues, it would mark the most significant drop since early May.

The euro maintained its position above Wednesday’s low for the year (~$1.1325) and rebounded to nearly $1.1390 by the conclusion of the European session on Thursday. The move above Wednesday’s high (~$1.1385) appeared encouraging, and while it was not maintained yesterday, the euro has continued to rise today, approaching $1.1415. Options for 2.1 billion euros at $1.1400 are set to expire today. The five-day moving average is also close to $1.1400, and the euro has not recorded a close above this level since June 16. The 1.1440 area corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the leg down since the mid-month high near 1.1620. The dollar has also risen above the five-day moving average relative to the Japanese yen. It is currently around JPY161.65, and the dollar has remained above this level since June 12. The dollar has dipped today, finding initial support around JPY161.50, coinciding with the expiration of options totalling nearly $1.25 billion. It has not closed below JPY161 since June 17. The prospect of official intervention has redirected some dollar buying away from the yen. Ironically, this month, it stands as the best performing G10 currency, having declined approximately 1.4%.

Yesterday, sterling maintained its position above the slight new low for the year established on Wednesday near $1.3140. It briefly traded above Wednesday’s high (~$1.3210) but ultimately closed below that level. Sterling is exhibiting strength today, having approached the lower boundary of a resistance range situated between $1.3230 and $1.3255. Sterling ranks as the second best performer among G10 currencies this month. It joins the yen as the only other currency to have declined less than 2% this month. The Canadian dollar experienced an increase for the first time in 11 sessions yesterday. Its approximately 0.25% increase matched the Swiss franc at the forefront of the G10 currency leaderboard. The greenback reached its highest point on Wednesday close to CAD1.4250 and experienced a slight decline, falling briefly below CAD1.4180 in North America yesterday. It has not succeeded in prolonging yesterday’s losses today; however, it is experiencing significant trading activity. The next chart’s support is observed around CAD1.4150.

In line with the trends observed in other currency pairs, the Australian dollar maintained its position above the low established on Wednesday and managed to rebound, trading marginally above the high recorded on that same day. It edged marginally above $0.6925. Today, it was initially sold at nearly $0.6875, marking a slight new low since early April. However, it has rebounded to approximately $0.6905 during European trading hours. A band of resistance between approximately $0.6935 and $0.6955. There are options totalling approximately A$530 million at a price of $0.6900 and A$500 million at $0.6875, both set to expire today.