The US dollar remains relatively stable against the majority of G10 currencies as the North American session approaches. Following yesterday’s advance, there were some additional gains in the greenback, although they were limited. The dollar’s rally against the yen persisted. The price approached JPY157.80 before retreating to approximately JPY157.10, where it encountered support in Europe. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes appeared to elevate the threshold for a rate cut next month, and this, along with Nvidia’s earnings and guidance, contributed to shaping today’s market sentiment.

Equities experienced a significant rise in the Asia Pacific region. Taiwan’s market demonstrated strong performance with a nearly 3.2% increase, while the Nikkei experienced a notable rally of 2.6%. Only Chinese stocks, both on the mainland and in Hong Kong, experienced a decline. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is reversing a five-day decline, showing an increase of nearly 0.80% in late morning trading across the continent. US index futures indicate a higher opening on Wall Street today. The substantial fiscal package implemented by Japan is exerting pressure on JGB yields. The 10-year yield increased by five basis points today. European yields are showing a slight increase, with the exception of Gilts, which remain nearly unchanged. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains relatively stable, hovering between 4.13% and 4.14%. Gold is currently softer, hovering around $4065, while January WTI is in a consolidation phase below $60, aligning with the 20-day moving average.

The Dollar Index experienced an increase of approximately 0.65% yesterday, marking its most significant rise since late September. Significantly, it closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March. It inched upward today but fell short of reaching the month’s peak, which was close to 100.35. Furthermore, the subsequent significant technical target is approximately 101.55, representing the (38.2%) retracement of the decline observed this year. The September jobs report is set to be released today, albeit later than expected. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey anticipates an increase of 55k, compared to 22k in August. Private sector payrolls are projected to increase by 68k, up from 38k in August, despite the ADP estimate indicating a loss of 29k. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable at 4.3%. Governor Waller presents a case for a potential rate cut next month, citing a stagnation in the labor market. He notes that the underlying weakness has yet to be fully reflected in the data and expresses a desire to overlook the impact of tariff increases on certain goods prices. Employment data is typically viewed as a lagging indicator, and this perspective is even more pronounced with the September figures. Consequently, unless there is a notable unexpected development, it remains uncertain whether the data will influence opinions significantly within the markets or at the central bank.

The euro declined to just under $1.1520 yesterday, marking a nine-session low, and in doing so, breached the (61.8%) retracement of the upward movement from earlier this month. Today’s follow-through selling brought it down to $1.1510. The 1.1500 level is critical at this juncture. Today, there are options worth 2 billion euros set to expire, along with an additional option valued at 1.4 billion euros that will expire tomorrow. The price action has deteriorated the technical condition, and the momentum indicators are poised to decline. The five-day moving average, having crossed above the 20-day moving average last week for the first time since late September, is now set to potentially decline back below it. The low recorded earlier this month was approximately $1.1470. The prior low occurred in late July to early August, just under $1.14, aligning with the current position of the 200-day moving average. In anticipation of the preliminary November PMI set for tomorrow, the eurozone has disclosed its construction output figures for September. It declined by 0.5%, yet Q3 remained stable, marking the first quarter this year without a decrease. Despite the release of Q3 GDP, the effect on markets and the central bank remains negligible.

The Australian dollar reached a low yesterday after European markets closed, settling near $0.6450. This marks its lowest level since October 17 and has breached the 200-day moving average of approximately $0.6460 on an intraday basis for the first time in the second half of 2025. The asset is currently fluctuating within a tight range of approximately $0.6470 to $0.6490. Options totaling A$735 million at a price of $0.6500 are set to expire today. The lows observed in October were within the $0.6540-45 range. A break could lead to a decline toward $0.6400, aligning with the (38.2%) retracement of this year’s rally, where support was established in July and August. The peaks for the year were noted on September 17 (Fed Day), just surpassing $0.6705. Since then, it has experienced three multi-day rallies that have faltered at increasingly lower levels. The momentum indicators are showing a downward trend, and the five-day moving average has fallen below the 20-day moving average once again.