The US dollar exhibits strength against the G10 currencies, with the exception of the Japanese yen.It is currently positioned around the JPY162 mark during the European morning, with options amounting to $2.2 billion set to expire later today. Germany reported a 0.9% rise in May industrial output, exceeding expectations and aligning with the largest increase since March 2025. Still, the euro is trading quietly lower. The NATO conference in Türkiye is poised to capture significant attention. Meanwhile, the market is anticipating a decision from the French court regarding Le Pen’s eligibility to participate in the presidential contest next year. And the 119 billion dollar coupon auctions this week by the US Treasury kick off with the 58 billion dollar sale of three-year notes today.

The euro recorded a slight decline, reaching a new session low in North America yesterday, just beneath $1.1410. Important chart support is observed in the $1.1400-05 range. It retested the session high in the North American afternoon, near $1.1450. Last week’s high was near 1.1475, which also corresponds to the 20-day moving average, now situated slightly above 1.1460. Thus far today, the euro is trading within a narrow range of approximately a quarter-cent below $1.1450. The yen exhibited limited fluctuations in the North American market yesterday. The US dollar experienced a downward trend throughout the majority of the North American session, nearing JPY162.00 as the day progressed into its final stages. It reached a high today just under JPY162.20 and encountered support just beneath JPY161.70. The unprecedented intervention in April and May resulted in a decline of nearly six yen for the greenback. The 2024 intervention, approximately half the magnitude of this year’s operation, resulted in a depreciation of the dollar by about 22 yen. There are 2.2 billion of JPY162 options that expire today and approximately 820 million at JPY162.50.

Sterling exhibited a seemingly bullish outside day, trading across both sides of yesterday’s range and ultimately closing above its high. It briefly exceeded $1.3400 today, where sellers were present and subsequently drove it down to $1.3375. Options for approximately GBP435 million at $1.3360 are set to expire today. Sterling must effectively navigate the resistance encountered in the $1.3400-20 range to indicate a potential advance toward $1.3500 subsequently. The Canadian dollar approached last week’s low, yet it remained intact; however, it still appears susceptible to further declines. In late June, the US dollar approached the CAD1.4250 level. Yesterday’s high was nearly CAD1.4240, while the US dollar retraced to approximately CAD1.4200 in the latter part of the trading session. It has remained within a range of approximately CAD1.4200 to CAD1.4220. It will require a breach of CAD1.4150 to furnish some technical confirmation that a peak might be established.

For the fourth consecutive session, the Australian dollar is exhibiting a pattern of higher lows and higher highs. It surpassed the resistance level near $0.6950 during the North American afternoon session, achieving a peak of $0.6960 today before retreating to approximately $0.6935. Sustaining the break targets the $0.7000 area next. The 20-day moving average is approximately $0.6970. The Aussie has not managed to close above the 20-day moving average since mid-May.