The US dollar exhibits a varied performance against the G10 currencies. The positive response to Japan’s five-year bond auction contributed to the ongoing rally in JGBs. Even with the lower yields, the yen’s approximately 0.25% increase positions it as the leading performer among G10 currencies today. In anticipation of a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand tomorrow, the Kiwi has appreciated approximately 0.2%. Disappointing labor data from the UK, along with the soft expectations component of Germany’s ZEW survey, is exerting pressure on both sterling and the euro. As US and Iranian officials convene in Switzerland today, Iran has restricted access to a section of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises, while the US has deployed a significant military presence in the region. Tensions are escalating, and despite the rise in oil prices, gold has been traded down to a seven-day low.

The euro experienced subdued trading yesterday. The price remains largely contained within the range established last Monday, fluctuating between $1.1810 and slightly above $1.1925. Yesterday, it marked its fourth consecutive session of lower highs and continued to decline in late trading. The 20-day moving average, which the euro has maintained above since January 21, is currently around $1.1845, with today’s low reaching approximately $1.1830 following the underwhelming German ZEW survey. The selling pressure seems to remain intact. The dollar seems to have established a support level above JPY152, and underwhelming Japanese data has led the swaps market to reduce the likelihood of an April hike from approximately 90% to 66%.

Initial resistance near JPY153.75 was tested but subsequently rejected, leading to a decline in the greenback to approximately JPY152.70 by early European turnover. The JPY153.10-20 range currently presents a resistance level. Sterling has exhibited a lack of movement in a timely manner. Last Tuesday, the five-day moving average was marginally under $1.3645. The current value stands at approximately $1.3625. Over the last three sessions, it has fluctuated within the range of approximately $1.3590 to $1.3670. It declined in late trading yesterday, reaching approximately $1.3550, marking a seven-day low, influenced by the disappointing employment data released today. The price rebounded to just over $1.3600 during the European morning session; however, it must regain a position above $1.3630 to alleviate the downward pressure. The Canadian dollar appears to be at risk. Yesterday, the greenback achieved its highest close since February 6, surpassing CAD1.3635. It has increased to nearly CAD1.33655 today and surpassed the 20-day moving average, which is approximately CAD1.364.

The US dollar has not maintained a position above this level since January 21. Options have the potential to safeguard against losses. In the upcoming three days, over $3 billion in options are set to expire at CAD1.36. The peak for the month approached CAD1.3725. A move beyond this level would aim for the CAD1.3760 region next. The Australian dollar, after nearing $0.7150 last week, has experienced a pullback. The price peaked at $0.7045 prior to the weekend and showed consolidation yesterday before making a retest today. Options at $0.7025 for approximately A$430 million expire today. The current consolidative or corrective phase appears to be ongoing. The central bank’s hawkish minutes appeared to exert minimal influence.