The US dollar demonstrated notable resilience despite the weaker than anticipated Q4 GDP figures and the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs. However, it faced pressure earlier today during the Asia Pacific session, with Tokyo closed for a national holiday. It has gradually regained its position in Europe and is currently exhibiting a narrowly mixed performance. Should American leadership be pursued at this juncture, it could be overshadowed by the winter storm currently immobilizing the Northeast. Following the Supreme Court’s decision, President Trump swiftly declared a new 10% tariff applicable to all imports, invoking Section 122 of the 1974 trade act. While many observers do not anticipate this to withstand a legal challenge, we remain uncertain and suspect that the process of exhausting legal recourse may extend beyond the 150 days during which the current 15% tariffs can be imposed. Nevertheless, President Trump’s negotiating leverage seems to have weakened.

The euro experienced a rebound following the US Supreme Court decision as the weekend approached, yet it encountered a slight halt just below the high reached the previous day. In early trading today, it was marked up to $1.1835, but has since unwound those gains, recording session lows near $1.1780 during the European morning. Proximate support is situated at approximately $1.1760. The dollar achieved a session peak against the yen in late Asian and early European trading, approaching JPY155.65, marking an eight-day high as the weekend approaches. Following the Supreme Court’s decision, the dollar experienced a decline, reaching a session low near JPY154.70 within an hour. The currency fluctuated within a 20-tick range surrounding JPY155.00 throughout the majority of the North American afternoon. Initially, it traded at JPY154.00 during early turnover today, but subsequently rebounded to just above JPY155.00 in the early European session. The JPY155.20 now presents initial resistance.

The increase in UK retail sales and improved February composite PMI contributed to reinforcing support for sterling at approximately $1.3435 ahead of the weekend. Upon the announcement of the tariff decision, sterling achieved new session highs approaching $1.35. The verdict resulted in a decline of sterling to nearly $1.3460, where it was subsequently acquired, bringing it within 1/100 of a cent of the prior day’s peak. It reached 1.3535 today before stalling. Since the peak was attained, sterling has retraced to $1.3500. Support is identified around the session low of $1.3480. The US dollar encountered significant resistance near CAD1.3700. It attempted in each of the previous four sessions, traded above it in the last two, yet failed to achieve a closing above it on any occasion. Nonetheless, the greenback maintained its position above the prior day’s low, situated just beneath CAD1.3670. The greenback declined to approximately CAD1.3650 before encountering demand that propelled it back to CAD1.3690. The level of CAD1.37 remains a hurdle that must be surpassed to enhance the technical outlook.

The Australian dollar exhibited a bullish outside up day, engaging in trading across both sides of the prior day’s range and concluding above its high. Nevertheless, despite multiple attempts since late last month, the Australian dollar succeeded in closing above the $0.7100 mark on one occasion, specifically on February 12. The multi-year high observed on that day was nearly $0.7150. Today’s follow-through buying has propelled the Australian dollar slightly above $0.7100, although momentum has since stalled. The value declined to approximately $0.7065 before a subsequent upward attempt was made, which ultimately lost momentum near $0.7090. The potential downside risk could reach $0.7040.