The US dollar is generally showing slight weakness as the North American session approaches. Participants appear to lack significant short-term conviction due to the increased tensions between the US and China, as well as concerns regarding political developments in France and Japan. The greenback has weakened against several pairs, showing some erosion of its recent ranges; however, there has been minimal follow-through in this movement. Weak Australian employment figures have heightened market expectations for a potential rate cut in the upcoming month, while the rebound in the UK’s August GDP is propelling sterling to lead the G10 currency performers today. French Prime Minister Lecornu has successfully navigated one of two no-confidence motions today, following yesterday’s substantial compromises that have provided the government with a temporary reprieve.

The Reserve Bank of India executed an unexpectedly aggressive intervention yesterday, coupled with US assertions that India has consented to halt purchases of Russian oil. This has resulted in further appreciation of the Indian rupee today, positioning it as one of the strongest currencies among emerging markets. Equities persist in their upward trajectory. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced today, driven by a 2.5% rally in South Korea’s Kospi and a 1.3% rise in Taiwan’s Taiex. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is currently up by approximately 0.40%, and if this trend continues, it would mark the third increase for the week. US index futures have improved by 0.30%-0.45%.

The underwhelming Australian jobs report resulted in a decline of over six basis points in its 10-year yield (to approximately 4.14%), whereas European benchmark 10-year yields are showing a slight variation. The 10-year Treasury yield remains steady at approximately 4.0%, currently at 4.02%. Gold reached a new high (~$4242) but is currently trading at approximately $4230. December WTI is currently positioned above $58, yet remains beneath $58.65. The Dollar Index has decisively moved outside of last Thursday’s range (~98.70-99.55) to the downside, reaching nearly 98.40 today. This exceeded the (50%) retracement of this month’s gains. The 20-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement are positioned within the 98.20-25 range.

The government is currently shut down, resulting in approximately two million federal employees facing a paycheck delay this week. A federal judge ruled yesterday against any further “reduction in force lay-offs.” Both political parties seem to be consolidating their positions instead of pursuing a compromise. Despite the government shutdown, the economic calendar remains active. Today presents three significant surveys: the October Philadelphia Fed survey, the NY Fed’s business services survey, and the NAHB home builders survey. Ultimately, the derivatives markets indicate a strong belief in a rate adjustment occurring later this month and in December.