The contrarian case for shorting the US dollar

He’s not alone in that call.

Kathy Lien, managing director of FX Strategy with BK Asset Management, similarly holds a long-term bullish perspective on the dollar, tempered by short-term bearishness.

“I’m skeptical of today’s rally,” she said, noting that it was driven by a core CPI number that was in truth not especially strong, and the hawkish words of non-voting FOMC members.

“Next week, I think we’ll see the dollar trading lower than it is right now, because the move got ahead of itself,” she said, while adding that she remains “quite bullish” for the longer-term trade.

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Yet some are encouraged by the recent action.

In a note released this week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch technical strategist MacNeil Curry advised clients to “stay bullish the U.S. dollar,” saying that it is in the midst of “resuming its long-term bull trend after three to four weeks of consolidation.”

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