The US dollar is experiencing a stronger position against the majority of global currencies today. The Australian employment data has surpassed expectations, fueling speculation that the central bank’s easing cycle may have concluded. This development accounts for the Australian dollar’s rise to its highest level this month. Nevertheless, sterling remains strong and has built on yesterday’s gains, even in light of reports indicating that the economy contracted in September and experienced minimal growth in Q3. September industrial output in the eurozone fell short of expectations; however, the euro climbed to $1.1635, marking a new high for the month. Emerging market currencies are showing strength, although a few East Asian currencies and the Turkish lira are exceptions.

Equities are predominantly up. The CSI 300 in China increased by 1.2%, spearheading the regional rally. Only Taiwan and Australia, among the larger exchanges, did not experience an upward movement. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is exhibiting a stronger trend, supported by a three-day rally. US index futures are predominantly stable. European benchmark 10-year yields are showing slight variations, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remains relatively stable around 4.07%. The US Treasury is set to issue $205 billion in bills and $25 billion in 30-year bonds today. Four Fed officials are set to speak; however, at least four who have recently commented appear to support maintaining the current stance next month. Gold is showing signs of recovery. The market has shown an upward trend for the fifth consecutive session today, reaching $4240. This marks the highest level since October 21, when it traded at $4375, just below the record high set the previous day at approximately $4381.50. December WTI has stabilized after a significant drop of nearly 4.2% due to increased worries regarding oversupply. It initially deepened yesterday’s decline to nearly $58 before stabilizing. The net result indicates a decrease of approximately one dollar from the settlement of last week, which was around $59.75.

The Dollar Index halted its five-day decline yesterday; however, it has since been pushed to a new monthly low today, approaching 99.15. The asset has breached the 20-day moving average (~99.30) but has maintained its position above it since September 23. Support is identified within the range of 98.75 to 99.00. The daily momentum indicators continue to decline. The longest government shutdown in US history has concluded. One could contend that a contributing factor to the recurrence of shutdowns is the relatively minimal economic fallout, despite the tangible disruption to lives. The general guideline indicates that each week of closure incurs approximately 0.1% of GDP in costs. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicated a 4% increase in GDP for Q3. Upon the re-opening of the economy, it generally experiences a rapid recovery of lost growth. October CPI was scheduled for release today, but it appears it may not materialize. The September employment report, originally scheduled for October 7, may be published as early as next week. It is important to note that ADP reported a decrease of 29k in private sector employment, marking the second consecutive month of decline.

Yesterday, the euro primarily fluctuated within a narrow range of approximately one-third of a cent below $1.1600. Options for 1.5 billion euros at $1.1590 are set to expire later today. Another tranche for 1.25 billion euros at $1.1575 also reaches maturity today. The highest settlement this month was recorded at approximately $1.1595. The current value has increased to $1.1635 today, nearing the (38.2%) retracement from the annual peak observed on September 17 at approximately $1.1920. Resistance levels are currently identified in the $1.1640-50 range. Industrial output in the eurozone increased by a lackluster 0.2%, falling short of the median forecast of a 0.7% recovery as per Bloomberg’s survey, following a contraction of 1.2% in August. On a workday adjusted basis, industrial output increased by 1.2% compared to the previous year, falling short of the 2.0% expectation. The manufacturing PMI has shown consistent improvement each month this year, with the exception of September, when it declined to 49.8 from 50.7 in August. Tomorrow, the eurozone is anticipated to announce that the aggregate economy expanded by 0.2% in Q3, following a growth of 0.1% in Q2 and 0.6% in Q1. The trade balance for the EMU in September is set to be reported. As of August, the average monthly trade surplus stood at 13.4 billion euros. During the initial eight months of 2024, the monthly average stood at 15.4 billion euros. In August, exports decreased by 6.7% compared to the previous year, while imports saw a decline of 4.9% year-over-year.