The dollar exhibits a narrow range of movements, showing a slightly stronger profile. The increase in the eurozone’s CPI this month was anticipated. Significant options are positioned at $1.15, set to expire today and tomorrow, which could potentially hinder a substantial recovery of the euro. Tokyo has indicated a decline in March CPI, accompanied by a downturn in February’s industrial production and retail sales figures. Nonetheless, the dollar has remained under JPY160. Today, multiple Fed officials will be addressing the economy, with Presidents Goolsbee and Schmid taking the stage, followed by Governor Barr discussing the regulation of stable coins later in the session. Following the release of the February JOLTS report, attention in the US economy now turns to the labor market.

The ADP private sector estimate is set to be published tomorrow, followed by the March nonfarm payroll report on Friday. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey indicates a projected increase of 65k, contrasting with a preliminary estimate reflecting a loss of 92k jobs in February. The recent five-session decline has seen the euro drop from above $1.16 to just under $1.1445, aligning with the low recorded on March 19. It rebounded to nearly $1.1500 following reports that President Trump once more hinted at concluding the war, while also not reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the upticks were not sustained, and the euro remains around relatively unchanged levels. It is important to observe that there are 2.5 billion euros in options at $1.15 set to expire today, along with an additional 4 billion euros in options expiring tomorrow. The low established on March 13 (~$1.1410) marked the lowest point since last August.

The yen experienced upward pressure as some late-positioned shorts were covered yesterday, following increased concerns from Japanese officials regarding the currency’s weakness. Additionally, the minutes from the latest BOJ meeting indicated the potential for an increase exceeding a quarter-point. The swaps market exhibits a degree of skepticism. There is approximately a 70% likelihood of an increase occurring later this month, with 53 basis points of tightening anticipated for this year. We harbor doubts regarding significant intervention. The verbal measures appear to be effective. The dollar neared but remained under JPY160 today. The US dollar reached its session low in North America yesterday, just under JPY159.35. It has maintained a position primarily above JPY159.50 throughout the day. Support levels are identified in the JPY158.75-JPY159.00 range. Sterling experienced a further decline yesterday. The asset reached a low around $1.3175, a level not observed since the previous November. It closed beneath the lower Bollinger Band, which is positioned just under $1.3195 today. The losses reached $1.3160 today before the pound rebounded to approximately $1.3225. The 1.3240-50 area presents the initial challenge. Options valued at approximately GBP650 million at a price of $1.3250 are set to expire today.

The Canadian dollar declined for the sixth straight session yesterday, hitting its lowest point since last December. Despite the 0.2% loss, the Loonie remains one of the top performers among G10 currencies, surpassed only by the Japanese yen, which faces intervention threats, and the Norwegian krone, which is more sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The US dollar peaked at CAD1.3945 and then traded within a tight range for the majority of the North American session, approximately between CAD1.3915 and CAD1.3930. The dollar is holding steady close to the highs observed yesterday. The subsequent objective is the CAD1.4000-20 range. The Australian dollar continued its decline for the seventh consecutive session yesterday. It fell beneath $0.6835, marking a two-month low. The asset experienced consolidation during the North American afternoon, primarily trading within the range of $0.6850-60. The range is limited to approximately $0.6835-75 today. Options valued at A$1.6 billion, with a strike price of $0.6825, are set to expire today.